Newsletter headings of "Mercury"

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№ 3, 2025
Author:

Job title: Counsellor, Department of International Cooperation and Exhibition Activities, Belarusian Chamber of Commerce and Industry
Over the years, the Saudi Arabian market has become increasingly attractive for companies in Belarus. In 2024 alone, Belarusian exports to the country jumped by 86%, and Saudi Arabia rose from 70th to 68th position in the list of importers of Belarusian products.

Economic Overview

Saudi Arabia is the largest economy in the Middle East and North Africa and one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. The country's GDP in 2024 reached 4.7 trillion riyals (US$1.3 trillion), mainly thanks to oil export revenues. Saudi Arabia has the world’s second-largest oil reserves, which are, moreover, easier to extract compared to those of the oil-richest Venezuela.

Most of the country's territory is unfit for permanent habitation, and only 2 per cent of it is arable. Because of that, the country's population is relatively small, standing at just 36.947 million people, whereof 38.6 per cent are expats. As a result, the KSA's GDP per capita at purchasing power parity is one of the highest, ranking the 11th in the world.

GDP is projected to grow by 3.7 per cent in 2025, outpacing the global average. Increased demand is likely to translate into a 4.5 per cent rise in consumer spending. Moderate inflation (around 2 per cent) will further consolidate the basis for Saudi Arabia's economic recovery.

The country pursues the strategy of economy diversication and reduced dependence on oil extraction. In 2024, the oil sector's contribution to GDP fell by 5 per cent, while the share of other sectors grew by 3.7 per cent. Their steady recovery ensured the economy's return to growth after the recession caused by the 2020 pandemic.

According to the Vision 2030 socio-economic development program, Saudi Arabia looks to achieve a GDP of USD 1.733 trillion over the next five years, with the non-energy sector's share to reach USD 1.325 trillion. While oil at present makes up 75 per cent of Saudi Arabia's total export, this percentage is expected to drop to 50 per cent by 2030.

In the future, Saudi Arabia's socio-economic development will be fueled primarily by non-carbon industries, capital investment in infrastructure, urban development, tourism, green and digital technologies. To this end, the country has established the Public Investment Fund with its assets totalling USD 925 billion. One of the largest projects in its portfolio is the USD 500-billion NEOM multifunctional economic and residential zone which includes The Line, a linear "City of the Future" complex, the Oxagon industrial district and seaport, the Traena ski resort, and the Sindalah seaside resort.

Saudi Arabia positions itself as a regional leader in digitalization and ICT development. Vision 2030 emphasizes the accelerated development of domestic e-services for healthcare, finance, education, transportation, entertainment, and governance. In 2023, the country's ICT sector was estimated to be the largest and fastest-growing in North Africa and the Middle East, valued at USD 40.94 billion (4.1 per cent of the national GDP). Notably, investment in digital infrastructure over the past six years has totaled USD 24.8 billion, while investment in artificial intelligence technologies has amounted to $720 million, to reach USD 1.9 billion by 2027.

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Foreign Trade

The long-standing focus on highly lucrative hydrocarbon extraction has led to the underdevelopment of Saudi Arabia's other industries. The country is highly reliant on imports in many key sectors, from food to complex equipment. Up to 80 per cent of its food is imported. Therefore, "Vision 2030" aims to replace foreign-made products with domestic ones in a number of areas. The country plans in particular, to become fully self-sufficient in dairy products, eggs, and poultry, and generally double domestic agricultural production.

For dairy products, wheat, and eggs this goal is deemed to have been achieved ahead of the 2030 deadline. However, statistics show that over the past three years, imports of these goods have been steadily growing in both quantity and value. The same applies to meat and processed meat products, fruits, vegetables, and soft drinks.

The positive trend is also noteworthy in the import of metal, medical and pharmaceutical products, textile yarn and fabrics. In the apparel segment, a mixed trend prevails: while physical volumes are on the rise, their values are declining.

In 2024, Saudi Arabia’s top imports included machinery, equipment and vehicles for various purposes (SAR 339.492 billion), refined petroleum products (SAR 48.8 billion), ferrous metals (SAR 36.9 billion), non-monetary gold (SAR 30.6 billion), other metal products (SAR 25.0 billion), grains (SAR 24.6 billion), non-ferrous metals (SAR 21 billion), vegetables and fruits (SAR 16.1 billion), essential oils, resinoids, aromatic substances, cleaning and washing agents (SAR 13.2 billion), meat and meat products (SAR 11.7 billion).

Chinese exporters’pressure in the Saudi market is the most notable: from 19.6 per cent  in 2020, their share reached 24 per cent by 2024, efficiently squeezing out suppliers from other countries.

Since the 2020–2021 pandemic crisis, Saudi Arabia's purchases from Belarus have been steadily mounting for the third year in a row, reaching SAR 29.3 million (USD 10.7 million) last year. This points at significant niches in the market for Belarusian companies to explore.106_12_04.jpg

Best bet exports for the Saudi market

Given the Saudi Arabia’s economic trajectory, its current and projected demand, the following Belarusian exports look most promising for the coming years:

1. Food. Demand will be driven by the rapid development of tourism and the HORECA industry. Healthy, dietary, and organic products, halal beef, poultry, soft drinks, dairy products, fresh fruits, vegetables, and products thereof will be particularly popular.

From  the positive experience of exporting milk powder, fermented milk products, and cheese from Belarus to the the United Arab Emirates - a KSA’s neighbor with a largely similar market - the same products may find demand in Saudi Arabia itself. The recent KSA’s recognition of the Belarusian “Belhalal”Halal certifier and hopefully not too distant authorization of poutry import from Belarus (the two governments are at work to make it happen) will open the door for these products in the local market. There, our country will have to compete with other dairy giants like New Zealand, the United States, and the UAE (apparently, a re-exporter), and the major meat supplier Brazil.

2. Industrial vehicles and machinery. Due to its large-scale construction program, Saudi Arabia will continue to experience a high need for such goods in the foreseeable future. From 2020 to 2024, there has been a more than threefold increase in KSA’s purchases of specialized equipment under HS codes 8429 (up to USD 1.2 billion), 8430 (up to USD 1.03 billion), and 8704 (up to USD 2.6 billion). Riyadh has shown some interest in buying freight and passenger vehicles from Belarus, as demonstrated by Belarusian-Saudi negotiations at the MAZ plant in February 2025.

China, India, Japan, South Korea, the EU, and the United States are main suppliers of such products. Given the long-term nature of local demand, it makes sense to consider setting up assembly lines of the Belarusian equipment in the KSA.

3. Apparel, linen and linen articles. In 2022–2024, Saudi Arabia's imports of clothing grew from 355,000 to 410,000 tons, imports of fabrics, linen and similar items increased from 656,000 to 850,000 tons. Approximately half of the purchases under HS codes 61, 62, and 6302 come from China, with exporters from Bangladesh and India also holding sizeable market shares. Belarus stands a good chance of challenging the established suppliers with its own flagship brands of high-end lingerie, linen, etc.

4. Fuel and petroleum products. Despite having its own oil refineries, Saudi Arabia imports significant volumes of petroleum products from abroad (20.7 thousand tons worth SAR 48.8 billion in 2024). The main suppliers include Egypt, Russia, the UAE, and Oman. In particular, Russia has increased sixfold its shipments of vacuum gas oil and fuel oil over the past four years. Following the Belarusian delegation's participation in the Saudi Plastics & Petrochem exhibition in Riyadh in May 2025, exporting petrochemical products to that country also merits consideration.

5. High-tech, digital products and services. Saudi Arabia displays interest in selected Belarus-made solutions that could be used under Vision 2030. In 2024, Belarusian High-Tech Park resident “X-Labs” was selected to participate in a project to build a large innovative sports center in Saudi Arabia. Another HTP resident, “Solar LS”, has been supplying the country with laser equipment for years (the third most important Belarusian export to the KSA, according to trademap.org). In 2025, the Saudis announced a purchase of a 50 per cent stake in “Solar LS” for the purpose of transferring its production and technology to Saudi Arabia as part of Vision 2030.

Riyadh's long-term commitment to digitalize and innovate its economy and everyday life points at the likelihood of new niches emerging in this market for Belarusian developers to explore.



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